AC Milan vs Sassuolo prediction for May 3, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Sassuolo 1.02 - AC Milan 1.78. Sassuolo is favored with a 68.9% win probability. Expected total goals: 2.8..
Sassuolo
1.02
Projected Goals
VS
2.8 total
AC Milan
1.78
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
SassuoloDrawAC Milan
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 98.1% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
AC Milan
1.01.82.6
Sassuolo
0.21.01.8
Projected
Sassuolo 1.02 — AC Milan 1.78
Actual
Sassuolo 2 — AC Milan 0
Expected Goals (xG)
Sassuolo0.99
AC Milan1.75
13.7Shots17.7
4.5On Target6.7
5.4Corners5.8
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
95.0%
Over 1.5
77.3%
Over 2.5
27.6%
Over 3.5
25.8%
Under 2.5
72.4%
BTTS
31.7%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
13.3%
0-1
11.3%
0-0
9.1%
1-2
9.1%
0-2
8.7%
Match Context
SERHigh
Sassuolo
1.37
Draw
4.33
AC Milan
11.04
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Sassuolo 68.9%
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Total
2.8
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →