Alavés vs Elche CF prediction for May 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 15,000 game iterations and projects Elche CF 1.94 - Alavés 1.43. Elche CF is favored with a 53.8% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.4..
Elche CF
1.94
Projected Goals
VS
3.4 total
Alavés
1.43
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Elche CFDrawAlavés
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.7% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Alavés
0.71.42.2
Elche CF
1.21.92.7
Expected Goals (xG)
Elche CF1.22
Alavés0.77
27.8Shots17.2
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
96.8%
Over 1.5
85.5%
Over 2.5
51.8%
Over 3.5
43.8%
Under 2.5
48.2%
BTTS
70.1%
Match Context
LALMedium
Elche CF
6.33
Draw
1.25
Alavés
10.26
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Elche CF 53.8%
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Total
3.4
+112.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 15,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →