Alavés vs Oviedo prediction for May 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Oviedo 2.08 - Alavés 1.52. Alavés is favored with a 42.6% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.6..
Oviedo
2.08
Projected Goals
VS
3.6 total
Alavés
1.52
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
OviedoDrawAlavés
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 97.9% (1,062 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Alavés
0.71.52.3
Oviedo
1.32.12.9
Expected Goals (xG)
Oviedo2.08
Alavés1.51
22.6Shots17.3
8.3On Target6.2
6.5Corners5.7
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
98.2%
Over 1.5
88.0%
Over 2.5
55.5%
Over 3.5
53.5%
Under 2.5
44.5%
BTTS
50.8%
Most Likely Scores
2-1
8.9%
1-1
8.3%
2-2
7.1%
3-1
6.8%
1-2
6.2%
Match Context
LALMedium
Oviedo
3.95
Draw
3.20
Alavés
2.16
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Alavés 42.6%
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Total
3.6
+27.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →