FINAL: Valencia 3 — Alavés 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Valencia 1.43 - Alavés 1.05 (Alavés at 50.1% win probability). Expected total goals: 2.5..
Valencia
1.43
Projected Goals
VS
2.5 total
Alavés
1.05
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
ValenciaDrawAlavés
AlavésValencia W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 98.1% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Alavés
0.31.11.8
Valencia
0.71.42.2
Projected
Valencia 1.43 — Alavés 1.05
Actual
Valencia 3 — Alavés 2
Pick Results
UNDER 2.25totalLOSS-1.00u
Expected Goals (xG)
Valencia1.41
Alavés1.05
14.7Shots12.0
5.5On Target4.2
5.4Corners5.1
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
92.7%
Over 1.5
71.8%
Over 2.5
30.0%
Over 3.5
15.6%
Under 2.5
70.0%
BTTS
31.8%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
13.6%
1-0
12.7%
0-0
10.6%
0-1
9.0%
2-0
8.9%
Match Context
LALMedium
Valencia
5.47
Draw
3.22
Alavés
1.76
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Alavés 50.1%
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Total
2.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →