Arsenal vs Crystal Palace prediction for May 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Crystal Palace 1.15 - Arsenal 2.37. Arsenal is favored with a 50.0% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.5..
Crystal Palace
1.15
Projected Goals
VS
3.5 total
Arsenal
2.37
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Crystal PalaceDrawArsenal
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 76.8% (1,081 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Arsenal
1.62.43.1
Crystal Palace
0.41.11.9
Projected
Crystal Palace 1.15 — Arsenal 2.37
Actual
Crystal Palace 1 — Arsenal 2
Expected Goals (xG)
Crystal Palace1.12
Arsenal2.30
15.1Shots22.6
5.1On Target8.8
5.8Corners6.4
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
97.5%
Over 1.5
87.2%
Over 2.5
55.3%
Over 3.5
53.3%
Under 2.5
44.7%
BTTS
50.5%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
10.4%
1-2
9.7%
0-2
7.4%
1-3
6.6%
0-1
6.5%
Match Context
EPLHigh
Crystal Palace
4.11
Draw
3.62
Arsenal
1.96
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Arsenal 50.0%
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Total
3.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →