Arsenal vs West Ham United prediction for May 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 15,000 game iterations and projects West Ham United 2.22 - Arsenal 1.48. West Ham United is favored with a 60.2% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.7..
West Ham United
2.22
Projected Goals
VS
3.7 total
Arsenal
1.48
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
West Ham UnitedDrawArsenal
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 69.1% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Arsenal
0.71.52.3
West Ham United
1.42.23.0
Projected
West Ham United 2.22 — Arsenal 1.48
Actual
West Ham United 0 — Arsenal 1
Expected Goals (xG)
West Ham United1.52
Arsenal0.85
34.3Shots18.1
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
97.6%
Over 1.5
89.0%
Over 2.5
55.1%
Over 3.5
50.3%
Under 2.5
44.9%
BTTS
73.6%
Match Context
EPLMedium
West Ham United
7.81
Draw
2.28
Arsenal
2.07
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
West Ham United 60.2%
--
Total
3.7
+709.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 15,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →