AS Monaco vs Metz prediction for May 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Metz 1.11 - AS Monaco 2.12. AS Monaco is favored with a 71.2% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.2..
Metz
1.11
Projected Goals
VS
3.2 total
AS Monaco
2.12
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
MetzDrawAS Monaco
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 98.1% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
AS Monaco
1.32.12.9
Metz
0.31.11.9
Projected
Metz 1.11 — AS Monaco 2.12
Actual
Metz 1 — AS Monaco 2
Expected Goals (xG)
Metz1.09
AS Monaco2.09
12.8Shots19.6
4.5On Target7.7
5.1Corners5.7
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
97.1%
Over 1.5
83.6%
Over 2.5
56.3%
Over 3.5
22.4%
Under 2.5
43.7%
BTTS
32.3%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
11.0%
1-2
9.9%
0-2
8.3%
0-1
7.8%
1-3
6.4%
Match Context
LIGCritical
Metz
7.95
Draw
5.84
AS Monaco
1.35
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
AS Monaco 71.2%
--
Total
3.2
+38.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →