AS Roma vs Parma prediction for May 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 15,000 game iterations and projects Parma 1.81 - AS Roma 1.94. AS Roma is favored with a 35.7% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.7..
Parma
1.81
Projected Goals
VS
3.7 total
AS Roma
1.94
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
ParmaDrawAS Roma
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 98.1% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
AS Roma
1.21.92.7
Parma
1.01.82.6
Projected
Parma 1.81 — AS Roma 1.94
Actual
Parma 2 — AS Roma 3
Expected Goals (xG)
Parma1.08
AS Roma1.19
22.8Shots27.0
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
97.6%
Over 1.5
89.1%
Over 2.5
55.4%
Over 3.5
52.0%
Under 2.5
44.6%
BTTS
76.9%
Match Context
SERMedium
Parma
7.76
Draw
4.39
AS Roma
1.47
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
AS Roma 35.7%
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Total
3.7
+67.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 15,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →