Aston Villa vs Burnley prediction for May 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 15,000 game iterations and projects Burnley 2.15 - Aston Villa 1.36. Burnley is favored with a 61.1% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.5..
Burnley
2.15
Projected Goals
VS
3.5 total
Aston Villa
1.36
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
BurnleyDrawAston Villa
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 69.1% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Aston Villa
0.61.42.1
Burnley
1.42.12.9
Projected
Burnley 2.15 — Aston Villa 1.36
Actual
Burnley 2 — Aston Villa 2
Expected Goals (xG)
Burnley1.46
Aston Villa0.72
30.9Shots16.3
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
97.2%
Over 1.5
87.2%
Over 2.5
53.6%
Over 3.5
46.3%
Under 2.5
46.4%
BTTS
70.5%
Match Context
EPLMedium
Burnley
7.62
Draw
3.10
Aston Villa
1.68
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Burnley 61.1%
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Total
3.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 15,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →