FINAL: Fulham 1 — Aston Villa 0. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Fulham 1.06 - Aston Villa 1.73 (Aston Villa at 52.8% win probability). Expected total goals: 2.8..
Fulham
1.06
Projected Goals
VS
2.8 total
Aston Villa
1.73
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
FulhamDrawAston Villa
Aston VillaFulham W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 98.1% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Aston Villa
1.01.72.5
Fulham
0.31.11.8
Projected
Fulham 1.06 — Aston Villa 1.73
Actual
Fulham 1 — Aston Villa 0
Pick Results
UNDER 2.5totalWIN+1.04u
Expected Goals (xG)
Fulham1.04
Aston Villa1.68
14.0Shots17.1
4.7On Target6.5
5.4Corners5.6
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
94.8%
Over 1.5
76.9%
Over 2.5
37.9%
Over 3.5
17.0%
Under 2.5
62.1%
BTTS
31.8%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.9%
1-2
8.9%
0-1
8.2%
2-1
7.8%
0-0
7.0%
Match Context
EPLMedium
Fulham
2.60
Draw
3.56
Aston Villa
2.72
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Aston Villa 52.8%
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Total
2.8
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →