FINAL: Inter Milan 1 — Atalanta BC 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Inter Milan 2.1 - Atalanta BC 1.17 (Inter Milan at 70.5% win probability). Expected total goals: 3.3..
Inter Milan
2.1
Projected Goals
VS
3.3 total
Atalanta BC
1.17
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Inter MilanDrawAtalanta BC
Atalanta BCInter Milan L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 98.1% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Atalanta BC
0.41.21.9
Inter Milan
1.32.12.9
Projected
Inter Milan 2.1 — Atalanta BC 1.17
Actual
Inter Milan 1 — Atalanta BC 1
Pick Results
OVER 2.5totalLOSS-1.50u
Expected Goals (xG)
Inter Milan2.04
Atalanta BC1.16
17.0Shots13.9
7.0On Target4.8
5.8Corners5.4
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
97.0%
Over 1.5
85.3%
Over 2.5
48.3%
Over 3.5
29.7%
Under 2.5
51.7%
BTTS
46.4%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.4%
1-0
10.2%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
9.0%
0-0
7.3%
Match Context
SERMedium
Inter Milan
1.18
Draw
6.28
Atalanta BC
22.82
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Inter Milan 70.5%
--
Total
3.3
+24.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →