Athletic Bilbao vs Espanyol prediction for May 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 15,000 game iterations and projects Espanyol 1.77 - Athletic Bilbao 1.63. Espanyol is favored with a 39.7% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.4..
Espanyol
1.77
Projected Goals
VS
3.4 total
Athletic Bilbao
1.63
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
EspanyolDrawAthletic Bilbao
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 69.1% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Athletic Bilbao
0.91.62.4
Espanyol
1.01.82.5
Expected Goals (xG)
Espanyol1.07
Athletic Bilbao0.91
23.7Shots21.4
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
96.7%
Over 1.5
85.5%
Over 2.5
52.0%
Over 3.5
44.1%
Under 2.5
48.0%
BTTS
71.5%
Match Context
LALMedium
Espanyol
2.86
Draw
2.93
Athletic Bilbao
2.98
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALRED ZONE42.9% WR (n=75)
Market is correctly pricing this as a competitive mid-table match; small edge and RED zone prohibit recommendation.
Key Factors
- Athletic Bilbao ranked #4 in La Liga (70 pts, strong defending), model gives home only 39.7% — small edge
- Draw probability 34% — well above league median of 23-25%, reduces ML value by ~7%
- xG gap only 0.16 goals — coin flip quality, no dominant team
Risk Factors
- Home ML in RED zone with 42.9% historical WR (n=75) — known money pit
- Draw outcome (34% model prob) counts as LOSS on ML, suppressing true value
- Small edge (4.73%) insufficient to overcome zone bias
SMALL EDGERED ZONEDRAW RISKMID TIER MISMATCH
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Espanyol 39.7%
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Total
3.4
+48.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 15,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →