Athletic Bilbao vs Getafe prediction for April 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Getafe 1.35 - Athletic Bilbao 1.14. Getafe is favored with a 66.1% win probability. Expected total goals: 2.5..
Getafe
1.35
Projected Goals
VS
2.5 total
Athletic Bilbao
1.14
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
GetafeDrawAthletic Bilbao
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 94.5% (630 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Athletic Bilbao
0.41.11.9
Getafe
0.61.42.1
Expected Goals (xG)
Getafe1.33
Athletic Bilbao1.11
13.9Shots12.6
5.2On Target4.5
5.2Corners5.2
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
92.3%
Over 1.5
71.6%
Over 2.5
25.1%
Over 3.5
13.3%
Under 2.5
74.9%
BTTS
31.1%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
13.8%
1-0
12.2%
0-0
10.6%
0-1
9.5%
2-1
8.4%
Match Context
LALMedium
Getafe
1.26
Draw
4.65
Athletic Bilbao
23.32
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Getafe 66.1%
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Total
2.5
+302.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →