Atlético Madrid vs CA Osasuna prediction for May 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 15,000 game iterations and projects CA Osasuna 2.14 - Atlético Madrid 1.64. CA Osasuna is favored with a 53.7% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.8..
CA Osasuna
2.14
Projected Goals
VS
3.8 total
Atlético Madrid
1.64
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
CA OsasunaDrawAtlético Madrid
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.7% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Atlético Madrid
0.91.62.4
CA Osasuna
1.42.12.9
Expected Goals (xG)
CA Osasuna1.38
Atlético Madrid0.94
30.5Shots20.6
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
97.9%
Over 1.5
89.5%
Over 2.5
55.6%
Over 3.5
52.8%
Under 2.5
44.4%
BTTS
76.3%
Match Context
LALMedium
CA Osasuna
2.54
Draw
3.68
Atlético Madrid
2.76
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALRED ZONE42.6% WR (n=77)
Model detects 14.3% home value edge (53.7% vs 39.4%) with strong total goals signal (+1.03 edge), but edge magnitude exceeds overconfidence threshold (10%+); market efficiently prices elite away team despite location; ML/Over disabled; home advantage compressed by Atlético's elite tier status.
Key Factors
- xG gap: Osasuna 1.38 vs Atlético 0.94 = 0.44 xG advantage to home (meaningful but not dominant)
- Tier quality gap compressed by home: Osasuna MID (32.4% win rate) vs Atlético ELITE (60% win rate), but 1.1x LAL home multiplier makes gap less extreme
- Atlético elite defense: 0.63 defense rating will suppress goal scoring despite Osasuna xG; BTTS 76.3% overstated
- Form advantage Atlético: W-W-L-W-D vs Osasuna D-W-W-D-L — elite team on uptick
- Total edge strongest on slate: Model 3.78 vs market 2.75 = 1.03 goal edge, but over market disabled
Risk Factors
- Edge magnitude 14.3% exceeds threshold: Historical data shows edges >10% have worse WR due to model overconfidence in soccer (high variance, draw outcomes)
- Home ML disabled: Red zone (42.6% WR) prevents leveraging home advantage despite xG gap
- Over market disabled: 46.5% WR grade F on overs; strongest edge (1.03 goals) is untradeable
HIGH EDGE WARNINGRED ZONEHOME ML TRAPML DISABLEDTIER MISMATCHOVER DISABLED
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CA Osasuna 53.7%
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Total
3.8
+19.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 15,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →