Atlético Madrid vs Valencia prediction for May 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Valencia 1.37 - Atlético Madrid 1.68. Valencia is favored with a 61.2% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.0..
Valencia
1.37
Projected Goals
VS
3.0 total
Atlético Madrid
1.68
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
ValenciaDrawAtlético Madrid
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 69.1% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Atlético Madrid
0.91.72.5
Valencia
0.61.42.1
Projected
Valencia 1.37 — Atlético Madrid 1.68
Actual
Valencia 0 — Atlético Madrid 2
Expected Goals (xG)
Valencia1.35
Atlético Madrid1.66
15.1Shots17.0
5.4On Target6.3
5.5Corners5.7
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
96.1%
Over 1.5
81.6%
Over 2.5
39.4%
Over 3.5
27.6%
Under 2.5
60.6%
BTTS
32.0%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.2%
1-2
8.9%
0-1
8.0%
2-1
7.9%
1-0
7.0%
Match Context
LALMedium
Valencia
1.72
Draw
4.04
Atlético Madrid
4.86
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Valencia 61.2%
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Total
3.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →