Atlético Madrid vs Villarreal prediction for May 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Villarreal 1.66 - Atlético Madrid 1.75. Villarreal is favored with a 38.9% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.4..
Villarreal
1.66
Projected Goals
VS
3.4 total
Atlético Madrid
1.75
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
VillarrealDrawAtlético Madrid
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 67.1% (1,114 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Atlético Madrid
1.01.82.5
Villarreal
0.91.72.4
Projected
Villarreal 1.66 — Atlético Madrid 1.75
Actual
Villarreal 5 — Atlético Madrid 1
Expected Goals (xG)
Villarreal1.63
Atlético Madrid1.71
18.2Shots16.5
6.6On Target6.4
6.0Corners5.6
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
97.5%
Over 1.5
85.8%
Over 2.5
55.2%
Over 3.5
53.0%
Under 2.5
44.8%
BTTS
52.3%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.2%
1-2
9.2%
0-1
8.3%
2-1
7.5%
0-2
7.1%
Match Context
LALMedium
Villarreal
2.57
Draw
3.91
Atlético Madrid
2.62
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Villarreal 38.9%
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Total
3.4
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →