Atlético Madrid vs Villarreal prediction for May 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Villarreal 1.66 - Atlético Madrid 1.75. Villarreal is favored with a 38.9% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.4..
Villarreal
1.66
Projected Goals
VS
3.4 total
Atlético Madrid
1.75
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
VillarrealDrawAtlético Madrid
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 65.9% (1,081 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Atlético Madrid
1.01.82.5
Villarreal
0.91.72.4
Projected
Villarreal 1.66 — Atlético Madrid 1.75
Actual
Villarreal 5 — Atlético Madrid 1
Expected Goals (xG)
Villarreal1.63
Atlético Madrid1.71
18.2Shots16.5
6.6On Target6.4
6.0Corners5.6
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
97.5%
Over 1.5
85.8%
Over 2.5
55.2%
Over 3.5
53.0%
Under 2.5
44.8%
BTTS
52.3%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.2%
1-2
9.2%
0-1
8.3%
2-1
7.5%
0-2
7.1%
Match Context
LALMedium
Villarreal
2.57
Draw
3.91
Atlético Madrid
2.62
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Villarreal 38.9%
--
Total
3.4
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →