FINAL: RB Leipzig 2 — Augsburg 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected RB Leipzig 1.76 - Augsburg 1.31 (RB Leipzig at 36.5% win probability). Expected total goals: 3.1..
RB Leipzig
1.76
Projected Goals
VS
3.1 total
Augsburg
1.31
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
RB LeipzigDrawAugsburg
Augsburg L4RB Leipzig W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 75.5% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Augsburg
0.51.32.1
RB Leipzig
1.01.82.5
Projected
RB Leipzig 1.76 — Augsburg 1.31
Actual
RB Leipzig 2 — Augsburg 1
Pick Results
OVER 2.5totalWIN+0.49u
Expected Goals (xG)
RB Leipzig1.74
Augsburg1.25
17.0Shots13.7
6.6On Target5.0
5.7Corners5.3
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
96.3%
Over 1.5
81.7%
Over 2.5
43.0%
Over 3.5
30.4%
Under 2.5
57.0%
BTTS
50.6%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
10.7%
2-1
9.5%
1-2
6.9%
2-0
6.7%
2-2
6.7%
Match Context
BUNMedium
RB Leipzig
2.87
Draw
1.74
Augsburg
7.35
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
RB Leipzig 36.5%
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Total
3.1
+28.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →