Augsburg vs Union Berlin prediction for May 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 15,000 game iterations and projects Union Berlin 1.51 - Augsburg 1.12. Union Berlin is favored with a 50.3% win probability. Expected total goals: 2.6..
Union Berlin
1.51
Projected Goals
VS
2.6 total
Augsburg
1.12
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Union BerlinDrawAugsburg
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.6% (1,053 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Augsburg
0.31.11.9
Union Berlin
0.71.52.3
Expected Goals (xG)
Union Berlin0.85
Augsburg0.49
24.4Shots12.7
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
93.3%
Over 1.5
74.5%
Over 2.5
49.4%
Over 3.5
26.8%
Under 2.5
50.6%
BTTS
56.7%
Match Context
BUNMedium
Union Berlin
1.68
Draw
4.18
Augsburg
4.56
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
Duplicate Union vs Augsburg. Model 50.3% home, 29.4% draw. Totals 2.63 vs 4.0 market = -1.37 UNDER bias. Low-scoring weak matchup. No edge.
LOW EDGE WARNING
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Union Berlin 50.3%
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Total
2.6
+64.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 15,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →