Austria vs Spain prediction for July 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Spain 2.01 - Austria 0.84. Spain is favored with a 65.6% win probability. Expected total goals: 2.8..
Spain
2.01
Projected Goals
VS
2.8 total
Austria
0.84
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
SpainDrawAustria
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 75.0% (1,107 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Austria
0.10.81.6
Spain
1.22.02.8
Expected Goals (xG)
Spain2.01
Austria0.84
21.6Shots18.0
7.9On Target6.4
6.7Corners6.2
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
99.1%
Over 1.5
85.1%
Over 2.5
48.0%
Over 3.5
47.6%
Under 2.5
52.0%
BTTS
63.2%
Most Likely Scores
2-0
11.9%
1-0
11.1%
1-1
10.7%
2-1
10.0%
3-0
8.0%
Match Context
WCCritical
Spain
1.33
Draw
5.32
Austria
10.07
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Spain 65.6%
--
Total
2.8
+20.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →