Barcelona vs Valencia prediction for May 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Valencia 1.21 - Barcelona 2.81. Barcelona is favored with a 48.8% win probability. Expected total goals: 4.0..
Valencia
1.21
Projected Goals
VS
4.0 total
Barcelona
2.81
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
ValenciaDrawBarcelona
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 78.2% (1,114 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Barcelona
2.02.83.6
Valencia
0.41.22.0
Projected
Valencia 1.21 — Barcelona 2.81
Actual
Valencia 3 — Barcelona 1
Expected Goals (xG)
Valencia1.19
Barcelona2.79
16.7Shots23.0
5.6On Target9.6
5.8Corners6.7
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
98.8%
Over 1.5
92.2%
Over 2.5
56.2%
Over 3.5
54.3%
Under 2.5
43.8%
BTTS
50.8%
Most Likely Scores
1-2
9.6%
1-1
8.4%
1-3
7.7%
0-2
7.3%
2-2
6.3%
Match Context
LALHigh
Valencia
3.40
Draw
4.08
Barcelona
2.04
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Barcelona 48.8%
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Total
4.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →