FINAL: 1. FC Heidenheim 3 — Bayer Leverkusen 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected 1. FC Heidenheim 1.27 - Bayer Leverkusen 1.71 (Bayer Leverkusen at 70.7% win probability). Expected total goals: 3.0..
1. FC Heidenheim
1.27
Projected Goals
VS
3.0 total
Bayer Leverkusen
1.71
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
1. FC HeidenheimDrawBayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen L51. FC Heidenheim
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 98.1% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Bayer Leverkusen
0.91.72.5
1. FC Heidenheim
0.51.32.0
Projected
1. FC Heidenheim 1.27 — Bayer Leverkusen 1.71
Actual
1. FC Heidenheim 3 — Bayer Leverkusen 3
Pick Results
UNDER 3.25totalLOSS-1.50u
Expected Goals (xG)
1. FC Heidenheim1.28
Bayer Leverkusen1.70
13.8Shots16.4
5.0On Target6.3
5.3Corners5.5
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
95.9%
Over 1.5
80.9%
Over 2.5
51.6%
Over 3.5
20.3%
Under 2.5
48.4%
BTTS
51.7%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
10.7%
1-2
9.4%
2-1
7.0%
2-2
6.8%
0-2
6.5%
Match Context
BUNCritical
1. FC Heidenheim
25.78
Draw
6.06
Bayer Leverkusen
1.18
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Bayer Leverkusen 70.7%
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Total
3.0
+36.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →