Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart prediction for May 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 15,000 game iterations and projects VfB Stuttgart 2.36 - Bayer Leverkusen 1.99. VfB Stuttgart is favored with a 50.6% win probability. Expected total goals: 4.3..
VfB Stuttgart
2.36
Projected Goals
VS
4.3 total
Bayer Leverkusen
1.99
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
VfB StuttgartDrawBayer Leverkusen
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.7% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Bayer Leverkusen
1.22.02.8
VfB Stuttgart
1.62.43.1
Projected
VfB Stuttgart 2.36 — Bayer Leverkusen 1.99
Actual
VfB Stuttgart 3 — Bayer Leverkusen 1
Expected Goals (xG)
VfB Stuttgart1.63
Bayer Leverkusen1.28
35.5Shots25.5
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
98.8%
Over 1.5
93.7%
Over 2.5
48.6%
Over 3.5
63.4%
Under 2.5
51.4%
BTTS
82.7%
Match Context
BUNMedium
VfB Stuttgart
2.11
Draw
3.66
Bayer Leverkusen
3.28
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
VfB Stuttgart 50.6%
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Total
4.3
+27.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 15,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →