Bayern Munich vs VfL Wolfsburg prediction for May 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 15,000 game iterations and projects VfL Wolfsburg 1.54 - Bayern Munich 2.45. Bayern Munich is favored with a 64.4% win probability. Expected total goals: 4.0..
VfL Wolfsburg
1.54
Projected Goals
VS
4.0 total
Bayern Munich
2.45
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
VfL WolfsburgDrawBayern Munich
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 98.1% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Bayern Munich
1.72.53.2
VfL Wolfsburg
0.81.52.3
Projected
VfL Wolfsburg 1.54 — Bayern Munich 2.45
Actual
VfL Wolfsburg 0 — Bayern Munich 1
Expected Goals (xG)
VfL Wolfsburg0.87
Bayern Munich1.72
16.8Shots39.5
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
98.1%
Over 1.5
91.2%
Over 2.5
57.0%
Over 3.5
56.9%
Under 2.5
43.0%
BTTS
76.3%
Match Context
BUNMedium
VfL Wolfsburg
6.30
Draw
4.85
Bayern Munich
1.46
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Bayern Munich 64.4%
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Total
4.0
+9.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 15,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →