FINAL: AS Roma 3 — Bologna 4. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected AS Roma 1.31 - Bologna 1.48 (Bologna at 23.3% win probability). Expected total goals: 2.8..
AS Roma
1.31
Projected Goals
VS
2.8 total
Bologna
1.48
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
AS RomaDrawBologna
Bologna W4AS Roma
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 98.1% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Bologna
0.71.52.3
AS Roma
0.51.32.1
Projected
AS Roma 1.31 — Bologna 1.48
Actual
AS Roma 3 — Bologna 4
Pick Results
OVER 2.25totalWIN+0.96u
Expected Goals (xG)
AS Roma1.33
Bologna1.47
14.1Shots15.0
5.1On Target5.6
5.3Corners5.5
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
94.8%
Over 1.5
77.1%
Over 2.5
32.0%
Over 3.5
18.1%
Under 2.5
68.0%
BTTS
46.9%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
13.8%
0-1
9.2%
0-0
8.8%
1-2
8.5%
1-0
8.2%
Match Context
UELHigh
AS Roma
6.00
Draw
1.22
Bologna
11.66
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANYELLOW ZONE46.5% WR (n=25)
Roma host Bologna in a 1-1 aggregate second leg, but Roma's attacking corps is decimated (Dybala OUT, Dovbyk OUT, Pellegrini OUT, Bailey OUT) while the model predicts just 2.83 total goals on a 2.25 line — the UNDER at 56.4% probability represents a mild lean on a model that reflects injury-depleted xG for both sides.
Key Factors
- First leg: Roma 1-1 Bologna at Renato Dall'Ara — aggregate is level, making this essentially a neutral home game with extra-time/penalties as backstop
- Roma injuries: Dybala OUT (knee — creative hub), Dovbyk OUT (groin — striker), Pellegrini OUT (thigh — captain), Bailey OUT (thigh), Bove OUT (heart problems) — Roma's top 5 attacking contributors ALL absent
- Bologna injuries: Immobile OUT (thigh — striker), Odgaard OUT (knee), Miranda OUT, Casale OUT — away side also heavily depleted
- Model total: 2.83 goals vs market line 2.25 — model sits only 0.58 above the line; NOT a strong over signal given injury context depleting both attacks
- Roma xG: 1.34 (home) — modest home xG reflecting injury-depleted squad; Bologna xG 1.45 (away) is similar, suggesting a tight affair
Risk Factors
- Under 2.25 zone: YELLOW (46.5% WR, 5-10% edge bucket) — marginal profitability historically, not a strong edge
- Draw probability 22.4% — in a second leg where a draw sends both to extra time/penalties, defensive caution likely prevails but a goal in extra time changes everything
- Model shows over_2_5 at only 43.6% — consistent with a low-scoring game, but the line is already set at 2.25 making the edge thin
UCL STAKESINJURY IMPACTDRAW RISKUNDER VALUERED ZONE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Bologna 23.3%
--
Total
2.8
+19.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →