Bologna vs Napoli prediction for May 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 15,000 game iterations and projects Napoli 2.19 - Bologna 1.41. Napoli is favored with a 60.8% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.6..
Napoli
2.19
Projected Goals
VS
3.6 total
Bologna
1.41
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
NapoliDrawBologna
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 69.1% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Bologna
0.61.42.2
Napoli
1.42.23.0
Projected
Napoli 2.19 — Bologna 1.41
Actual
Napoli 2 — Bologna 3
Expected Goals (xG)
Napoli1.42
Bologna0.71
34.4Shots14.4
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
97.6%
Over 1.5
88.1%
Over 2.5
54.4%
Over 3.5
48.4%
Under 2.5
45.6%
BTTS
71.1%
Match Context
SERMedium
Napoli
1.58
Draw
4.10
Bologna
6.30
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1RED ZONE42.4% WR (n=78)
Napoli is dominant (top tier, 1.82 attack, xG +0.71 edge) but home ML is RED zone (42.4% WR) and 23.7% draw probability kills ML profitability — market correctly priced home at 63.29% implied, near model 60.81%.
Key Factors
- xG dominance: Napoli 1.42 vs Bologna 0.71 = +0.71 xG/90 quality gap (elite vs weak team matchup)
- Team tier mismatch: Napoli attack 1.82 (top tier), Bologna attack 1.15 (lower tier) and defense 1.62 (weak positioning)
- Form advantage: Napoli WDDWW (1.1x multiplier) vs Bologna LLWLD (0.9x) = +0.2 form gap
- Draw probability trap: Model 23.7% draw (league avg 23% SER) = 3-way ML is structurally unfavorable despite win probability edge
- Market efficiency: Home ML at -170 (63.29% implied) vs model 60.81% = market correctly absorbed the team quality gap; no mispricing detected
Risk Factors
- Home ML in RED zone: 42.4% historical WR across 78 samples (z=-1.36). Home bias is proven money pit in soccer.
- 3-way ML structure: 23.7% draw outcomes eliminate home ML bets; only 76.3% of outcomes produce a winner, creating -EV scenario
- Bologna has weak offensive profile (1.15 attack) but decent home goal rate (1.32 GF/90); potential for upset upset via set pieces or defensive organization
HOME ML TRAPDRAW RISKRED ZONEDIRECTION CONFIRMEDTIER MISMATCH
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Napoli 60.8%
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Total
3.6
+38.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 15,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →