FINAL: Sassuolo 0 — Bologna 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Sassuolo 1.46 - Bologna 1.74 (Bologna at 65.9% win probability). Expected total goals: 3.2..
Sassuolo
1.46
Projected Goals
VS
3.2 total
Bologna
1.74
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
SassuoloDrawBologna
Bologna W4Sassuolo
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 98.1% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Bologna
1.01.72.5
Sassuolo
0.71.52.2
Projected
Sassuolo 1.46 — Bologna 1.74
Actual
Sassuolo 0 — Bologna 1
Pick Results
OVER 2.5totalLOSS-1.50u
Expected Goals (xG)
Sassuolo1.44
Bologna1.70
14.9Shots16.8
5.5On Target6.4
5.5Corners5.6
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
96.7%
Over 1.5
84.3%
Over 2.5
32.0%
Over 3.5
27.3%
Under 2.5
68.0%
BTTS
46.0%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
13.0%
0-1
9.1%
1-2
8.9%
1-0
7.7%
2-1
7.6%
Match Context
SERMedium
Sassuolo
7.63
Draw
3.67
Bologna
1.53
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Bologna 65.9%
--
Total
3.2
+30.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →