Soccer

Borussia Dortmund vs Borussia Monchengladbach Prediction

May 3, 2026

5,000 Monte Carlo simulations

Borussia Dortmund vs Borussia Monchengladbach prediction for May 3, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Borussia Monchengladbach 1.12 - Borussia Dortmund 1.72. Borussia Dortmund is favored with a 51.0% win probability. Expected total goals: 2.8..

Borussia Monchengladbach
1.12
Projected Goals
VS 2.8 total
Borussia Dortmund
1.72
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
22.3%
27%
51.0%
Borussia MonchengladbachDrawBorussia Dortmund
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 98.1% (1,051 games)

Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile

Borussia Dortmund
0.91.72.5
Borussia Monchengladbach
0.31.11.9

Expected Goals (xG)

Borussia Monchengladbach1.10
Borussia Dortmund1.71
13.1Shots15.7
4.6On Target6.1
5.2Corners5.6

Goal Probabilities

Over 0.5
95.4%
Over 1.5
78.7%
Over 2.5
49.2%
Over 3.5
17.3%
Under 2.5
50.8%
BTTS
49.1%

Most Likely Scores

1-1
10.7%
1-2
9.8%
0-2
7.5%
0-1
6.5%
1-3
6.5%

Match Context

BUNHigh
Borussia Monchengladbach
3.71
Draw
2.35
Borussia Dortmund
2.83

Edge Analysis

Moneyline
Borussia Dortmund 51.0%
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Total
2.8
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →

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