Brazil vs Scotland prediction for June 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Scotland 0.96 - Brazil 2.11. Brazil is favored with a 65.2% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.1..
Scotland
0.96
Projected Goals
VS
3.1 total
Brazil
2.11
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
ScotlandDrawBrazil
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 84.1% (1,107 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Brazil
1.32.12.9
Scotland
0.21.01.7
Projected
Scotland 0.96 — Brazil 2.11
Actual
Scotland 0 — Brazil 3
Expected Goals (xG)
Scotland0.96
Brazil2.11
18.7Shots18.2
6.7On Target6.7
6.2Corners5.9
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
97.7%
Over 1.5
85.3%
Over 2.5
56.6%
Over 3.5
43.9%
Under 2.5
43.4%
BTTS
63.0%
Most Likely Scores
0-2
10.6%
1-1
10.4%
1-2
10.1%
0-1
9.3%
0-3
7.4%
Match Context
WCHigh
Scotland
10.25
Draw
5.70
Brazil
1.33
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2RED ZONE36.1% WR (n=50)
Model shows internal conflict: overprices Scotland (15.90% vs market 8.93%) while underpricing Brazil away (65.21% vs market 67.74%). Market appears to have correctly repriced model overconfidence; strong data integrity concern.
Key Factors
- Scotland HOME OVERVALUED by model: 15.90% vs market 8.93% = +6.97% edge suggests model miscalibration on tier gap
- xG quality mismatch: Brazil 2.11 vs Scotland 0.96 = +1.15 xG/90, one of largest today but market correctly applies larger discount
- Brazil away UNDERVALUED by model: 65.21% vs market 67.74% = market has correctly repriced Brazil higher vs model
- Red zone constraint: Brazil away in RED ZONE (36.1% WR) — even fairly priced away favorites fail historically
- Elite-vs-second-tier confirms market: Tier gap should result in 70%+ probability; market at 67.74% is conservative vs model's 65.21%
Risk Factors
- Model credibility concern: +6.97% overpricing of Scotland suggests model doesn't properly weight tier gaps
- Brazil away too expensive: -210 odds (1.48 decimal) require 67% win to break even; not enough margin despite being elite team
- Draw risk moderate but material: 18.89% means Scotland draw eliminates Brazil away ML value despite quality mismatch
DATA INTEGRITYMODEL MARKET CONFLICTRED ZONETIER MISMATCH
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Brazil 65.2%
--
Total
3.1
+5.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →