FINAL: Leeds United 0 — Brentford 0. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Leeds United 1.56 - Brentford 1.42 (Brentford at 36.0% win probability). Expected total goals: 3.0..
Leeds United
1.56
Projected Goals
VS
3.0 total
Brentford
1.42
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Leeds UnitedDrawBrentford
Brentford L5Leeds United
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 98.1% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Brentford
0.61.42.2
Leeds United
0.81.62.3
Projected
Leeds United 1.56 — Brentford 1.42
Actual
Leeds United 0 — Brentford 0
Pick Results
OVER 2.5totalLOSS-1.00u
Expected Goals (xG)
Leeds United1.57
Brentford1.41
15.8Shots14.7
6.0On Target5.5
5.5Corners5.4
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
95.7%
Over 1.5
81.0%
Over 2.5
52.8%
Over 3.5
20.1%
Under 2.5
47.2%
BTTS
42.7%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.7%
2-1
8.9%
1-2
7.9%
1-0
7.8%
0-1
6.8%
Match Context
EPLMedium
Leeds United
4.71
Draw
1.47
Brentford
6.00
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Brentford 36.0%
--
Total
3.0
+116.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →