Soccer

Brentford vs Liverpool Prediction

May 24, 2026

5,000 Monte Carlo simulations

Brentford vs Liverpool prediction for May 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Liverpool 1.76 - Brentford 1.42. Liverpool is favored with a 36.0% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.2..

Liverpool
1.76
Projected Goals
VS 3.2 total
Brentford
1.42
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
36.0%
46%
17.8%
LiverpoolDrawBrentford
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 73.1% (1,114 games)

Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile

Brentford
0.61.42.2
Liverpool
1.01.82.5
FINALLiverpool 1 — Brentford 1
Projected
Liverpool 1.76 — Brentford 1.42
Actual
Liverpool 1 — Brentford 1

Expected Goals (xG)

Liverpool1.76
Brentford1.40
16.9Shots18.3
6.5On Target6.2
5.8Corners6.0

Goal Probabilities

Over 0.5
96.5%
Over 1.5
82.3%
Over 2.5
54.7%
Over 3.5
52.5%
Under 2.5
45.3%
BTTS
60.5%

Most Likely Scores

1-1
11.7%
2-1
9.1%
1-2
7.8%
1-0
6.7%
2-2
6.5%

Match Context

EPLHigh
Liverpool
2.83
Draw
1.91
Brentford
5.77

Edge Analysis

Moneyline
Liverpool 36.0%
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Total
3.2
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →

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