FINAL: Paris FC 4 — Brest 0. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Paris FC 1.51 - Brest 1.47 (Brest at 44.3% win probability). Expected total goals: 3.0..
Paris FC
1.51
Projected Goals
VS
3.0 total
Brest
1.47
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Paris FCDrawBrest
Brest L4Paris FC W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 88.9% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Brest
0.71.52.2
Paris FC
0.71.52.3
Projected
Paris FC 1.51 — Brest 1.47
Actual
Paris FC 4 — Brest 0
Pick Results
UNDER 2.5totalLOSS-1.00u
Expected Goals (xG)
Paris FC1.50
Brest1.44
16.1Shots15.6
5.9On Target5.7
5.5Corners5.5
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
96.1%
Over 1.5
80.6%
Over 2.5
51.1%
Over 3.5
19.0%
Under 2.5
48.9%
BTTS
32.5%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.0%
2-1
9.0%
1-2
7.9%
1-0
7.1%
2-2
6.3%
Match Context
LIGMedium
Paris FC
2.05
Draw
3.68
Brest
3.71
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Brest 44.3%
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Total
3.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →