FINAL: Fulham 3 — Burnley 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Fulham 1.85 - Burnley 1.3 (Fulham at 43.2% win probability). Expected total goals: 3.1..
Fulham
1.85
Projected Goals
VS
3.1 total
Burnley
1.3
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
FulhamDrawBurnley
Burnley L5Fulham W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.7% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Burnley
0.51.32.1
Fulham
1.11.92.6
Projected
Fulham 1.85 — Burnley 1.3
Actual
Fulham 3 — Burnley 1
Pick Results
OVER 2.5totalWIN+0.82u
Expected Goals (xG)
Fulham1.83
Burnley1.26
17.3Shots13.8
6.8On Target5.0
5.6Corners5.3
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
96.6%
Over 1.5
82.8%
Over 2.5
53.9%
Over 3.5
22.2%
Under 2.5
46.1%
BTTS
48.7%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
11.5%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.0%
1-0
7.9%
1-2
6.5%
Match Context
EPLCritical
Fulham
1.86
Draw
2.85
Burnley
5.92
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Fulham 43.2%
--
Total
3.1
+87.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →