CA Osasuna vs Levante prediction for May 8, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 15,000 game iterations and projects Levante 1.79 - CA Osasuna 1.73. Levante is favored with a 33.4% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.5..
Levante
1.79
Projected Goals
VS
3.5 total
CA Osasuna
1.73
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
LevanteDrawCA Osasuna
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 88.9% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
CA Osasuna
1.01.72.5
Levante
1.01.82.6
Expected Goals (xG)
Levante1.09
CA Osasuna1.03
24.9Shots23.5
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
96.8%
Over 1.5
86.9%
Over 2.5
53.3%
Over 3.5
47.3%
Under 2.5
46.7%
BTTS
74.1%
Match Context
LALMedium
Levante
2.62
Draw
3.25
CA Osasuna
2.96
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALRED ZONE42.7% WR (n=69)
Coin-flip match with extremely elevated draw probability (38% model vs 30.8% market) — 3-way ML makes all outcomes roughly equal value, and no directional edge justifies a bet.
Key Factors
- Extreme draw probability: Model 38.0%, market 30.8% — La Liga's natural draw rate (24%) is exceeded, suggesting cagey play/balanced teams expected
- Teams are evenly matched: Levante 1.09 xGF home vs Osasuna 1.03 xGF away = near parity. Quality gap is minimal. Osasuna attack (1.79) slightly better than Levante (1.12) but not decisive.
- Market pricing is reasonably balanced: Home 38.2%, Draw 30.8%, Away 33.8% sum to 3-way format (103% total odds represents bookmaker margin)
- No clear directional edge: Model slightly favors draw over market, but this doesn't translate to clear bet recommendation in 3-way. All three outcomes have 28-38% probability.
- Recent form context: Osasuna 2W-2D-1L recent (60% non-loss rate) is slightly positive, but Levante form is unknown, limiting inference.
Risk Factors
- High draw probability (38% model) means any moneyline bet has ~2-in-5 chance of automatic loss (draw outcome)
- Minimal team quality gap means no edge on directional pick (home/away)
- La Liga high-draw environment means market respect for draw is justified — market's 30.8% may be underweighting, but gap (7.2%) is within noise
DRAW RISKCOIN FLIPMINIMAL EDGENO DIRECTIONAL ADVANTAGE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Levante 33.4%
--
Total
3.5
+31.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 15,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →