Cagliari vs AC Milan prediction for May 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects AC Milan 1.87 - Cagliari 1.05. AC Milan is favored with a 66.3% win probability. Expected total goals: 2.9..
AC Milan
1.87
Projected Goals
VS
2.9 total
Cagliari
1.05
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
AC MilanDrawCagliari
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 77.0% (1,114 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Cagliari
0.31.11.8
AC Milan
1.11.92.6
Projected
AC Milan 1.87 — Cagliari 1.05
Actual
AC Milan 1 — Cagliari 2
Expected Goals (xG)
AC Milan1.84
Cagliari1.01
19.2Shots14.6
7.1On Target4.8
6.0Corners5.6
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
95.6%
Over 1.5
79.1%
Over 2.5
54.2%
Over 3.5
51.8%
Under 2.5
45.8%
BTTS
50.1%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.6%
1-0
11.4%
2-0
9.8%
2-1
9.6%
0-0
8.2%
Match Context
SERMedium
AC Milan
1.31
Draw
5.52
Cagliari
10.97
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
AC Milan 66.3%
--
Total
2.9
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →