Cagliari vs AC Milan prediction for May 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects AC Milan 1.87 - Cagliari 1.05. AC Milan is favored with a 66.3% win probability. Expected total goals: 2.9..
AC Milan
1.87
Projected Goals
VS
2.9 total
Cagliari
1.05
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
AC MilanDrawCagliari
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 71.1% (1,081 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Cagliari
0.31.11.8
AC Milan
1.11.92.6
Projected
AC Milan 1.87 — Cagliari 1.05
Actual
AC Milan 1 — Cagliari 2
Expected Goals (xG)
AC Milan1.84
Cagliari1.01
19.2Shots14.6
7.1On Target4.8
6.0Corners5.6
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
95.6%
Over 1.5
79.1%
Over 2.5
54.2%
Over 3.5
51.8%
Under 2.5
45.8%
BTTS
50.1%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.6%
1-0
11.4%
2-0
9.8%
2-1
9.6%
0-0
8.2%
Match Context
SERMedium
AC Milan
1.31
Draw
5.52
Cagliari
10.97
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
AC Milan 66.3%
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Total
2.9
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →