Cagliari vs Bologna prediction for May 3, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Bologna 1.36 - Cagliari 1.32. Bologna is favored with a 37.6% win probability. Expected total goals: 2.7..
Bologna
1.36
Projected Goals
VS
2.7 total
Cagliari
1.32
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
BolognaDrawCagliari
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 75.5% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Cagliari
0.51.32.1
Bologna
0.61.42.1
Projected
Bologna 1.36 — Cagliari 1.32
Actual
Bologna 0 — Cagliari 0
Expected Goals (xG)
Bologna1.33
Cagliari1.32
14.5Shots14.5
5.3On Target5.3
5.3Corners5.3
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
94.3%
Over 1.5
74.3%
Over 2.5
27.7%
Over 3.5
15.7%
Under 2.5
72.3%
BTTS
31.8%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
13.9%
1-0
11.7%
0-0
10.6%
0-1
9.6%
2-1
8.3%
Match Context
SERMedium
Bologna
1.91
Draw
3.40
Cagliari
4.63
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Bologna 37.6%
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Total
2.7
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →