Cape Verde vs Uruguay prediction for June 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Uruguay 2.13 - Cape Verde 0.91. Uruguay is favored with a 61.7% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.0..
Uruguay
2.13
Projected Goals
VS
3.0 total
Cape Verde
0.91
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
UruguayDrawCape Verde
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 70.2% (1,098 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Cape Verde
0.10.91.7
Uruguay
1.42.12.9
Projected
Uruguay 2.13 — Cape Verde 0.91
Actual
Uruguay 2 — Cape Verde 2
Expected Goals (xG)
Uruguay2.13
Cape Verde0.91
20.3Shots16.3
7.4On Target5.8
6.3Corners5.8
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
97.1%
Over 1.5
84.1%
Over 2.5
55.8%
Over 3.5
43.2%
Under 2.5
44.2%
BTTS
60.2%
Most Likely Scores
2-0
11.1%
1-1
10.2%
2-1
10.1%
1-0
9.6%
3-0
7.9%
Match Context
WCHigh
Uruguay
1.44
Draw
4.40
Cape Verde
9.75
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +0YELLOW ZONE49.2% WR (n=105)
OVER 2.25 has +0.79 goal edge (model 3.04 xG total vs market 2.25); Totals are YELLOW zone (49.2% WR). Marginal lean on goal-scoring mismatch, but avoid home ML (RED zone) despite Uruguay dominance.
Key Factors
- xG total: Uruguay 2.13 + Cape Verde 0.91 = 3.04 (model total 3.04 vs market 2.25 = +0.79 edge)
- Totals zone: YELLOW 49.2% WR (n=105) — marginal but requires minimum 8% edge (this is 0.79 goals ≈ 26% on 2.25 line)
- Uruguay attack: 2.13 xGF/90 is elite-level goal creation (2nd tier European quality)
- Cape Verde defense: 0.91 xGA suggests porous; Uruguay will create chances
- Market underestimate: 2.25 total is 0.79 goals BELOW model expectation — meaningful gap in low-scoring sport
Risk Factors
- Totals grade C: 50.3% WR, -1.4 units in recent window — marginal product with calibration risk
- YELLOW zone: 49.2% WR is below breakeven; edge must be 8%+ minimum, and 0.79 goals on 2.25 = ~35% edge (requires sustained 55%+ WR to justify)
- Cape Verde goal suppression: Although weak, World Cup defenses can create long spells of no scoring (counterattacks, time-wasting); 3+ goals possible but not guaranteed
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Uruguay 61.7%
--
Total
3.0
+28.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →