Celta Vigo vs Atlético Madrid prediction for May 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 15,000 game iterations and projects Atlético Madrid 1.96 - Celta Vigo 1.78. Atlético Madrid is favored with a 40.2% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.7..
Atlético Madrid
1.96
Projected Goals
VS
3.7 total
Celta Vigo
1.78
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Atlético MadridDrawCelta Vigo
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 69.1% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Celta Vigo
1.01.82.6
Atlético Madrid
1.22.02.7
Projected
Atlético Madrid 1.96 — Celta Vigo 1.78
Actual
Atlético Madrid 0 — Celta Vigo 1
Expected Goals (xG)
Atlético Madrid1.24
Celta Vigo1.07
28.4Shots23.4
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
97.5%
Over 1.5
89.0%
Over 2.5
55.3%
Over 3.5
51.8%
Under 2.5
44.7%
BTTS
76.8%
Match Context
LALMedium
Atlético Madrid
1.63
Draw
3.87
Celta Vigo
5.54
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Atlético Madrid 40.2%
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Total
3.7
+11.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 15,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →