FINAL: Lyon 0 — Celta Vigo 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Lyon 1.63 - Celta Vigo 1.48 (Celta Vigo at 53.3% win probability). Expected total goals: 3.1..
Lyon
1.63
Projected Goals
VS
3.1 total
Celta Vigo
1.48
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
LyonDrawCelta Vigo
Celta VigoLyon L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 98.1% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Celta Vigo
0.71.52.3
Lyon
0.91.62.4
Projected
Lyon 1.63 — Celta Vigo 1.48
Actual
Lyon 0 — Celta Vigo 2
Pick Results
OVER 2.25totalLOSS-0.50u
Expected Goals (xG)
Lyon1.60
Celta Vigo1.47
14.1Shots15.1
5.6On Target5.7
5.3Corners5.5
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
96.7%
Over 1.5
82.7%
Over 2.5
54.3%
Over 3.5
22.4%
Under 2.5
45.7%
BTTS
54.4%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.8%
2-1
8.9%
1-2
7.9%
1-0
7.6%
0-0
6.7%
Match Context
UELHigh
Lyon
6.18
Draw
2.41
Celta Vigo
2.02
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALRED ZONE31.6% WR (n=155)
Market correctly prices Lyon as home favorites in a 1-1 aggregate second leg, but the model's 41.6% away win probability for Celta massively overestimates the away side in a high-stakes UEL knockout — massive model-market conflict (Celta implied 27% vs model 41.6%) with NO specific informational edge to explain it.
Key Factors
- First leg: Lyon drew 1-1 at Celta Vigo — aggregate level, Lyon hosting with home advantage advantage amplified by European stakes
- Lyon UEL stats: 2.111 GF/90 home, 0.75 GA/90 home — elite home attacking record (7W-0D-1L in UEL, 21 pts, top of UEL table)
- Model gives Celta 41.6% away win probability vs 27.0% market implied — massive 14.6% gap with NO injury/lineup information to explain it
- Celta Vigo strength tier: TOP with attack 1.85, defense 1.42 — but away UEL record shows 1.8 GF/90 vs 1.4 GA/90 away
- Away ML zone: RED (31.6% WR, z-score -4.58, n=155) — our historically worst zone; 14-day WR 38.1%
Risk Factors
- Model-market gap of 14.6% on Celta away win is in HIGH EDGE WARNING territory — historically our worst WR bucket
- All ML bets are Grade F (47.6% WR, -7.5% ROI) — active hard-block on ML market
- Draw probability 22.2% means any ML bet has significant attrition; Celta could draw and still advance if they score, making this a complex multi-outcome situation
UCL STAKESDRAW RISKRED ZONEMODEL MARKET CONFLICTHIGH EDGE WARNING
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Celta Vigo 53.3%
--
Total
3.1
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →