FINAL: Real Betis 1 — Celta Vigo 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Real Betis 1.6 - Celta Vigo 1.39 (Celta Vigo at 35.2% win probability). Expected total goals: 3.0..
Real Betis
1.6
Projected Goals
VS
3.0 total
Celta Vigo
1.39
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Real BetisDrawCelta Vigo
Celta VigoReal Betis L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 88.9% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Celta Vigo
0.61.42.2
Real Betis
0.81.62.4
Projected
Real Betis 1.6 — Celta Vigo 1.39
Actual
Real Betis 1 — Celta Vigo 1
Pick Results
OVER 2.5totalLOSS-0.50u
Expected Goals (xG)
Real Betis1.57
Celta Vigo1.37
16.0Shots14.5
6.0On Target5.3
5.7Corners5.5
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
95.8%
Over 1.5
80.7%
Over 2.5
50.1%
Over 3.5
21.2%
Under 2.5
49.9%
BTTS
53.7%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
13.0%
1-0
9.2%
2-1
8.7%
0-1
8.2%
1-2
7.8%
Match Context
LALMedium
Real Betis
2.86
Draw
2.01
Celta Vigo
4.73
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Celta Vigo 35.2%
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Total
3.0
+66.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →