FINAL: Everton 3 — Chelsea 0. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Everton 1.33 - Chelsea 1.75 (Chelsea at 54.4% win probability). Expected total goals: 3.1..
Everton
1.33
Projected Goals
VS
3.1 total
Chelsea
1.75
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
EvertonDrawChelsea
Chelsea L5Everton
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 98.1% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Chelsea
1.01.82.5
Everton
0.61.32.1
Projected
Everton 1.33 — Chelsea 1.75
Actual
Everton 3 — Chelsea 0
Pick Results
OVER 2.5totalWIN+0.93u
Expected Goals (xG)
Everton1.30
Chelsea1.70
14.0Shots16.8
5.1On Target6.4
5.3Corners5.8
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
96.3%
Over 1.5
82.2%
Over 2.5
53.1%
Over 3.5
21.0%
Under 2.5
46.9%
BTTS
44.6%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.8%
1-2
9.2%
0-1
8.6%
0-2
7.4%
2-1
7.4%
Match Context
EPLMedium
Everton
3.21
Draw
2.98
Chelsea
2.43
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Chelsea 54.4%
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Total
3.1
+32.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →