Chelsea vs Liverpool prediction for May 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 15,000 game iterations and projects Liverpool 2.28 - Chelsea 1.84. Liverpool is favored with a 52.0% win probability. Expected total goals: 4.1..
Liverpool
2.28
Projected Goals
VS
4.1 total
Chelsea
1.84
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
LiverpoolDrawChelsea
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.7% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Chelsea
1.11.82.6
Liverpool
1.52.33.1
Projected
Liverpool 2.28 — Chelsea 1.84
Actual
Liverpool 1 — Chelsea 1
Expected Goals (xG)
Liverpool1.58
Chelsea1.16
30.6Shots28.1
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
98.5%
Over 1.5
92.3%
Over 2.5
56.5%
Over 3.5
59.4%
Under 2.5
43.5%
BTTS
80.9%
Match Context
EPLMedium
Liverpool
1.96
Draw
3.80
Chelsea
3.82
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Liverpool 52.0%
--
Total
4.1
+18.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 15,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →