Chelsea vs Sunderland prediction for May 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Sunderland 1.77 - Chelsea 1.86. Chelsea is favored with a 45.4% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.6..
Sunderland
1.77
Projected Goals
VS
3.6 total
Chelsea
1.86
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
SunderlandDrawChelsea
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 78.5% (1,081 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Chelsea
1.11.92.6
Sunderland
1.01.82.5
Projected
Sunderland 1.77 — Chelsea 1.86
Actual
Sunderland 2 — Chelsea 1
Expected Goals (xG)
Sunderland1.76
Chelsea1.81
17.4Shots19.3
6.6On Target7.1
5.8Corners6.1
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
98.1%
Over 1.5
87.6%
Over 2.5
55.6%
Over 3.5
53.6%
Under 2.5
44.4%
BTTS
52.6%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
9.9%
1-2
8.3%
2-1
8.0%
2-2
7.3%
1-3
5.0%
Match Context
EPLMedium
Sunderland
3.62
Draw
3.74
Chelsea
2.06
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Chelsea 45.4%
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Total
3.6
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →