FINAL: Lecce 2 — Cremonese 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Lecce 1.24 - Cremonese 1.2 (Lecce at 62.6% win probability). Expected total goals: 2.4..
Lecce
1.24
Projected Goals
VS
2.4 total
Cremonese
1.2
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
LecceDrawCremonese
Cremonese L5Lecce
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 75.5% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Cremonese
0.41.22.0
Lecce
0.51.22.0
Projected
Lecce 1.24 — Cremonese 1.2
Actual
Lecce 2 — Cremonese 1
Pick Results
UNDER 2.75totalLOSS-0.50u
Expected Goals (xG)
Lecce1.22
Cremonese1.21
13.2Shots13.2
4.8On Target4.8
5.2Corners5.2
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
91.9%
Over 1.5
70.8%
Over 2.5
33.7%
Over 3.5
28.7%
Under 2.5
66.3%
BTTS
31.8%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
14.3%
0-0
12.4%
1-0
11.9%
0-1
11.5%
2-1
7.4%
Match Context
SERCritical
Lecce
1.29
Draw
4.44
Cremonese
18.16
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Lecce 62.6%
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Total
2.4
+72.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →