Croatia vs Portugal prediction for July 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Portugal 2.03 - Croatia 1.26. Portugal is favored with a 52.7% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.3..
Portugal
2.03
Projected Goals
VS
3.3 total
Croatia
1.26
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
PortugalDrawCroatia
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 64.1% (1,107 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Croatia
0.51.32.0
Portugal
1.32.02.8
Expected Goals (xG)
Portugal2.03
Croatia1.26
21.4Shots18.2
7.9On Target6.5
6.7Corners6.2
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
99.3%
Over 1.5
87.2%
Over 2.5
63.2%
Over 3.5
45.1%
Under 2.5
36.8%
BTTS
64.7%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
10.5%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
7.8%
1-0
6.9%
3-1
6.7%
Match Context
WCCritical
Portugal
1.81
Draw
3.59
Croatia
4.87
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Portugal 52.7%
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Total
3.3
+31.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →