Soccer

Crystal Palace vs Brentford Prediction

May 17, 2026

5,000 Monte Carlo simulations

Crystal Palace vs Brentford prediction for May 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Brentford 2.01 - Crystal Palace 1.63. Brentford is favored with a 52.6% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.6..

Brentford
2.01
Projected Goals
VS 3.6 total
Crystal Palace
1.63
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
52.6%
23%
24.7%
BrentfordDrawCrystal Palace
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 65.1% (1,062 games)

Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile

Crystal Palace
0.91.62.4
Brentford
1.22.02.8
FINALBrentford 2 — Crystal Palace 2
Projected
Brentford 2.01 — Crystal Palace 1.63
Actual
Brentford 2 — Crystal Palace 2

Expected Goals (xG)

Brentford1.97
Crystal Palace1.60
20.5Shots17.9
7.7On Target6.5
6.1Corners5.9

Goal Probabilities

Over 0.5
98.1%
Over 1.5
88.9%
Over 2.5
55.6%
Over 3.5
53.6%
Under 2.5
44.4%
BTTS
52.5%

Most Likely Scores

1-1
9.9%
1-2
8.2%
2-1
8.1%
2-2
7.3%
1-3
4.9%

Match Context

EPLMedium
Brentford
1.76
Draw
4.04
Crystal Palace
4.57

Edge Analysis

Moneyline
Brentford 52.6%
--
Total
3.6
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →

Want Premium Predictions?

Get full access to all picks, detailed game-by-game analysis, and Kelly-optimized unit sizing across 9 leagues.

Go Premium Free Picks