Ecuador vs Ivory Coast prediction for June 14, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Ivory Coast 1.47 - Ecuador 1.59. Ecuador is favored with a 36.6% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.1..
Ivory Coast
1.47
Projected Goals
VS
3.1 total
Ecuador
1.59
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Ivory CoastDrawEcuador
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 74.1% (1,049 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Ecuador
0.81.62.4
Ivory Coast
0.71.52.2
Projected
Ivory Coast 1.47 — Ecuador 1.59
Actual
Ivory Coast 1 — Ecuador 0
Expected Goals (xG)
Ivory Coast1.47
Ecuador1.59
19.6Shots17.3
7.1On Target6.2
6.2Corners5.9
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
97.2%
Over 1.5
84.0%
Over 2.5
56.0%
Over 3.5
43.5%
Under 2.5
44.0%
BTTS
61.8%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
11.9%
1-2
8.8%
2-1
8.1%
0-1
6.6%
2-2
6.5%
Match Context
WCHigh
Ivory Coast
3.39
Draw
2.92
Ecuador
2.60
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALRED ZONE42.3% WR (n=52)
Market-model gaps are minimal: Ecuador 36.58% (model) vs 38.46% (market) = -1.88% gap; Ivory Coast 31.92% (model) vs 29.5% (market) = +2.42% gap (slight IC edge); but 31.49% draw probability makes this a true 3-way toss-up — edge is erased by draw risk.
Key Factors
- High draw probability: 31.49% — nearly 1 in 3 outcomes is draw, erasing edge
- Minimal xG gap: Ivory Coast 1.47 vs Ecuador 1.59 (Ecuador -0.12) — suggests Ecuador is actually better
- Slight IC edge on ML: Model 31.92% vs market 29.5% = +2.42% — tempting, but draws steal it
- Market-model alignment: Ecuador 36.58% (model) vs 38.46% (market) = -1.88% gap — near perfect agreement
- Zone penalty: Home ML is RED (42.3% WR) — fighting regime; even +2.42% edge insufficient
Risk Factors
- Draw dominance: 31.49% draw probability makes this effectively 3-way; +2.42% edge disappears
- xG mismatch: Ecuador has slight xG edge (-0.12), contradicting Ivory Coast bet
- Red zone home ML: 42.3% WR means historical -7.7% ROI on home picks like this
HIGH DRAW RISKRED ZONEXG MISMATCH
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Ecuador 36.6%
--
Total
3.1
+40.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →