Ecuador vs Mexico prediction for July 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Mexico 1.96 - Ecuador 1.37. Mexico is favored with a 45.0% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.3..
Mexico
1.96
Projected Goals
VS
3.3 total
Ecuador
1.37
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
MexicoDrawEcuador
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 66.1% (1,107 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Ecuador
0.61.42.1
Mexico
1.22.02.7
Expected Goals (xG)
Mexico1.96
Ecuador1.37
23.5Shots17.1
8.7On Target6.0
6.7Corners5.9
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
98.1%
Over 1.5
88.3%
Over 2.5
61.1%
Over 3.5
47.4%
Under 2.5
38.9%
BTTS
66.0%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
10.6%
2-1
9.6%
2-0
7.0%
1-2
6.7%
2-2
6.6%
Match Context
WCMedium
Mexico
2.23
Draw
2.92
Ecuador
4.32
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Mexico 45.0%
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Total
3.3
+46.0 pts
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →