FINAL: Barcelona 4 — Espanyol 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Barcelona 2.31 - Espanyol 1.06 (Barcelona at 65.4% win probability). Expected total goals: 3.4..
Barcelona
2.31
Projected Goals
VS
3.4 total
Espanyol
1.06
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
BarcelonaDrawEspanyol
Espanyol L5Barcelona W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 75.5% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Espanyol
0.31.11.8
Barcelona
1.52.33.1
Projected
Barcelona 2.31 — Espanyol 1.06
Actual
Barcelona 4 — Espanyol 1
Pick Results
UNDER 3.75totalLOSS-1.00u
Expected Goals (xG)
Barcelona2.30
Espanyol1.04
19.1Shots14.8
7.9On Target4.8
6.0Corners5.5
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
97.8%
Over 1.5
86.0%
Over 2.5
68.2%
Over 3.5
23.8%
Under 2.5
31.8%
BTTS
32.5%
Most Likely Scores
2-1
10.0%
1-1
9.5%
2-0
8.6%
3-1
7.4%
1-0
7.3%
Match Context
LALDerbyHigh
Barcelona
1.16
Draw
7.07
Espanyol
19.14
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Barcelona 65.4%
--
Total
3.4
+231.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →