Espanyol vs Sevilla prediction for May 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 15,000 game iterations and projects Sevilla 1.47 - Espanyol 1.4. Sevilla is favored with a 33.6% win probability. Expected total goals: 2.9..
Sevilla
1.47
Projected Goals
VS
2.9 total
Espanyol
1.4
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
SevillaDrawEspanyol
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 81.0% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Espanyol
0.61.42.2
Sevilla
0.71.52.2
Projected
Sevilla 1.47 — Espanyol 1.4
Actual
Sevilla 2 — Espanyol 1
Expected Goals (xG)
Sevilla0.79
Espanyol0.73
19.1Shots20.1
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
94.3%
Over 1.5
78.3%
Over 2.5
55.1%
Over 3.5
32.0%
Under 2.5
44.9%
BTTS
62.4%
Match Context
LALMedium
Sevilla
2.01
Draw
3.34
Espanyol
4.33
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Sevilla 33.6%
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Total
2.9
+36.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 15,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →