FC St. Pauli vs Union Berlin prediction for April 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Union Berlin 1.42 - FC St. Pauli 1.16. FC St. Pauli is favored with a 35.7% win probability. Expected total goals: 2.6..
Union Berlin
1.42
Projected Goals
VS
2.6 total
FC St. Pauli
1.16
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Union BerlinDrawFC St. Pauli
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 94.5% (630 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
FC St. Pauli
0.41.21.9
Union Berlin
0.61.42.2
Expected Goals (xG)
Union Berlin1.38
FC St. Pauli1.14
14.5Shots12.5
5.4On Target4.5
5.3Corners5.1
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
93.3%
Over 1.5
72.9%
Over 2.5
26.6%
Over 3.5
22.3%
Under 2.5
73.5%
BTTS
32.3%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.9%
2-1
9.2%
1-0
8.0%
1-2
7.5%
2-0
7.1%
Match Context
BUNMedium
Union Berlin
3.44
Draw
1.64
FC St. Pauli
6.34
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
FC St. Pauli 35.7%
--
Total
2.6
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →